Possible scenario
Limited Energy Strikes
38% Chance
Israel follows through with a contained strike package against Iranian energy infrastructure while avoiding actions that would immediately close the Strait of Hormuz. The goal is coercive punishment and deterrence rather than regime-change warfare, making this the most likely escalation path after the public threat.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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