Possible scenario
Brinkmanship Holds
27% Chance
Israel uses the threat to increase leverage while the United States, Qatar, and Oman attempt to prevent a direct attack on Iranian energy assets. Covert action and missile-defense deployments continue, but the immediate market shock is smaller than in a kinetic strike scenario.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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