Possible scenario
Reprieve Becomes Law
45% Chance
The European Parliament deal survives negotiations with the Council and Commission, turning the France-Germany political agreement into binding EU legislation. Carmakers gain more flexibility on combustion-engine sales after 2035, especially for plug-in hybrids, range extenders, and fuels deemed climate-neutral.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +1.1%
- Non-Energy Materials -0.4%
- Energy +0.3%
- Utilities -0.2%
Tickers
- STLA+1.7%
- TSLA-1.3%
- +1.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.