Possible scenario
Proxy And Cyber Pressure
30% Chance
Iran avoids a direct national strike but uses allied groups, cyber operations, and deniable pressure to disrupt Israel’s election environment. This is the most flexible path for Tehran because it raises costs for Israel while preserving plausible deniability.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.5%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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