Possible scenario
Direct Iranian Strike
25% Chance
Iran decides that Israeli election timing creates an incentive for a preemptive strike or coercive show of force. Tehran likely tries to calibrate the attack to demonstrate capability while avoiding an uncontrollable regional war.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.1%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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