Possible scenario
Strike Escalates Nationally
28% Chance
The October 13 strike call hardens into a wider refinery and depot standoff, with unions using high retail shortages to press wage and purchasing-power demands. The government responds with requisitions, but confrontation keeps diesel logistics fragile.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -1.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.0%
- Industrials -1.0%
- Energy +0.9%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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