Possible scenario
Imports Stabilize Supply
20% Chance
France offsets refinery disruptions with higher diesel imports from Northwest Europe and Spain, aided by temporary trucking exemptions and port prioritization. This path depends on sufficient available cargoes despite the broader Iran-war energy premium.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.4%
- Consumer Services +0.2%
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.2%
- Industrials +0.2%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.