Possible scenario
Prosecution Case Tightens
38% Chance
Dutch authorities keep the second suspect in custody while the FBI and DOJ prepare a formal evidence package tied to the FBI and Pentagon personnel-data claims. The arrest of Pepijn van der Stap days earlier gives investigators a stronger basis to map ShinyHunters infrastructure and alleged co-conspirators.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.