Possible scenario
Anthropic Exclusion Holds
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Emil Michael uses the AI Task Force to formalize the administration's existing shift away from Anthropic after the guardrails dispute. Google and OpenAI remain the main replacement vendors for Pentagon AI work, while Anthropic is limited to non-federal or state-level opportunities.
Secondary impacts
- Technology +0.3%
- Business Services +0.1%
- Industrials +0.1%
Tickers
- PLTR+0.7%
- MSFT+0.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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