Possible scenario
Prolonged Hormuz Attrition
30% Chance
Iran sustains pressure through intermittent attacks while stopping short of a formal closure. Gulf exports continue, but owners, insurers, and charterers demand sharply higher compensation for moving crude through the strait.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +3.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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