Possible scenario
Escorts Stabilize Transit
35% Chance
The U.S. Fifth Fleet, Royal Navy, and Gulf partners expand escorted convoys and air surveillance around the traffic separation lanes. Iran continues signaling leverage but avoids a step that would invite broader strikes on IRGC coastal assets.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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