Possible scenario
Diplomatic Pause Emerges
20% Chance
Oman, Qatar, and possibly China press Iran to pause attacks in exchange for talks on sanctions relief, detained assets, or U.S. force posture. Tehran accepts a temporary off-ramp because Gulf exports have rebounded and the attacks risk unifying a naval coalition against it.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -2.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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