Possible scenario
Rapid Strait Breakthrough
34% Chance
The internationally recognized Yemeni government, backed by Saudi, Emirati, and U.S. intelligence support, converts the early 100,000-troop offensive into fast gains around Bab al-Mandeb. This is plausible because the Houthis have only recently seized the strait and may not yet have entrenched their logistics and coastal defenses.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -1.1%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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