Possible scenario
Costly Frontline Stalemate
33% Chance
The offensive advances in some districts but fails to dislodge Houthi forces from enough terrain to reopen the strait safely. This is a highly plausible outcome because Bab al-Mandeb is geographically narrow, easily targeted by missiles and drones, and difficult to secure without sustained air superiority and mine clearance.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.1%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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