Possible scenario
Republicans Hold Narrowly
27% Chance
Republicans survive despite being outraised because incumbency, favorable district lines, and late conservative outside spending offset the Democratic cash surge. Mike Johnson remains Speaker or leads a closely divided GOP conference, keeping Republican tax and deregulatory priorities alive.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Industrials +0.3%
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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