Possible scenario
Russian Tactical Gain
25% Chance
Russia finds a limited but useful role for Shturm vehicles in high-risk assault corridors, especially where electronic warfare and artillery suppression can protect them. This does not transform the war, but it could force Ukraine to divert more drones, anti-armor weapons, and counter-robotics assets to threatened sectors.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.9%
- Technology +0.5%
Tickers
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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