Possible scenario
Conservative Expansion
28% Chance
A conservative majority could use the new term to extend its Second Amendment doctrine while also giving the executive branch wider discretion over immigration enforcement. This would be consistent with the Court's recent willingness to limit firearm bans, though the 2026 birthright citizenship ruling suggests the immigration side is less certain.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.2%
- Business Services +0.2%
Tickers
- GEO+4.1%
- CXW+3.6%
- SWBI+3.5%
- RGR+3.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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