Possible scenario
Limited U.S. Strikes
25% Chance
Washington may judge that escort-only operations are failing and conduct limited strikes on IRGC missile, drone, radar, and mine-laying assets. The base case under this scenario is calibrated coercion rather than a full regional war, but retaliation risk rises sharply.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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