Possible scenario
Hormuz Flow Disrupted
20% Chance
A larger disruption becomes plausible if mines, insurer withdrawals, or vessel-owner refusals slow traffic materially even without a formal Iranian closure. This would be a direct shock to one of the world’s most important oil and LNG transit routes.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +8.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-3.8%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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