Possible scenario
Limited Israeli Strike
30% Chance
Israel uses the newly available route to hit select Iranian military or nuclear-support targets while trying to keep the operation below the threshold of full regional war. The probability is meaningful because the airspace change directly improves operational feasibility after the recent IRGC attack in Iraqi Kurdistan.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.6%
- Technology
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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