Possible scenario
Iraqi Backlash Deepens
18% Chance
Iraq treats the US decision as a sovereignty violation after the recent American base closure and Iran-linked instability in Kurdistan. The main risk is not a strong Iraqi military response, but political fragmentation and militia action that further weakens airspace control.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.9%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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