Possible scenario
Russian Strike Escalation
18% Chance
Unable to regain the initiative quickly on the ground, Russia expands missile, drone, and glide-bomb attacks on Ukrainian logistics and energy infrastructure. The escalation remains within the existing war but adds short-term market caution.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
- Copper Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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