Possible scenario
Russia Adapts Offensive
30% Chance
Moscow adjusts to the disruption near Sloviansk by shifting pressure to neighboring sectors, seeking a less costly route to threaten the broader Kramatorsk-Sloviansk defensive belt. This keeps the Donbas campaign active despite Ukraine's recent tactical success.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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