Possible scenario
Prolonged Diplomatic Standoff
29% Chance
South Africa keeps protesting the refugee program while Washington refuses to withdraw it. The dispute remains mostly diplomatic, but repeated summonses, public statements by Cyril Ramaphosa, and U.S. congressional commentary keep bilateral tensions elevated.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Non-Energy Materials -0.3%
- Finance -0.2%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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