Possible scenario
Contained Valuation Reset
38% Chance
Investors treat the 70% loss as a severe but mostly asset-specific mark on an older Philadelphia office loan rather than evidence of a full AAA CMBS breakdown. Trading desks reprice comparable single-borrower office bonds, but broader credit markets absorb the news with limited contagion.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.7%
Tickers
- BXMT-0.9%
- SLG-0.9%
- -0.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.