Possible scenario
Naval Escorts Expand
15% Chance
The United States, United Kingdom, France, and Gulf states move from monitoring to escorted transits. This can stabilize shipping if Iran avoids escorts, but it also raises the chance of a direct IRGC encounter.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.6%
- Energy
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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