Possible scenario
Disruption Widens Gradually
30% Chance
Iran continues list-based enforcement and more ships are struck, detained, or diverted without a formal attempt to close the Strait. The most likely escalation path is sustained uncertainty: higher war-risk premia, slower transits, and rising crude prices, but no immediate all-out regional conflict.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.