Possible scenario
Contained Hormuz Pressure
45% Chance
Iran keeps framing the strikes as enforcement of its Hormuz compliance rules rather than a broader war signal. Gulf intermediaries press Tehran and Abu Dhabi to avoid further tanker hits while shipping firms adjust paperwork, routing notices, and naval coordination.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- 10-year Treasury yield Up
- Oil prices Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Consumer Services +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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