Possible scenario
Policy Friction Limits
18% Chance
European policymakers support open AI in principle but impose tighter safety, data and model-release conditions as the initiative becomes more visible. The project continues, but compliance requirements limit the speed and breadth of open-weight releases.
Secondary impacts
- Technology -0.3%
- Business Services -0.1%
Tickers
- NVDA-0.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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