Possible scenario
Unrest Spreads Nationwide
25% Chance
The firefighter attack hardens both sides, and new videos of police-student clashes draw more unions and local groups into the dispute. Disruption spreads from schools to public transport, city centers, and some logistics nodes, producing a clearer short-term market risk-off move.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Services -2.0%
- Consumer Cyclicals -1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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