Possible scenario
Crackdown Contains Riots
35% Chance
The government treats the burning of a firefighter as a turning point and moves quickly to restore order around schools and transport hubs. Police reinforcements, arrests, and temporary campus closures reduce street violence without requiring major concessions on the 2027 budget.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Down
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Cyclicals +0.1%
- Consumer Services +0.1%
- Finance +0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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