Possible scenario
Renewed Energy Campaign
20% Chance
The Houthis follow the Riyadh attack with threats or attempted strikes against major Saudi energy nodes, reviving memories of the 2019 Abqaiq disruption. The market reaction becomes more oil-centered, with Gulf equities and banks under pressure.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.8%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-2.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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