Possible scenario
Back-Channel De-Escalation
25% Chance
Oman, the United States, and regional intermediaries push both sides back toward the informal understandings that previously reduced Red Sea and cross-border attacks. Markets recover as investors see the attack as bargaining pressure rather than the start of a sustained campaign.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- Oil prices Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.9%
- Consumer Services +0.7%
- Energy -0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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