Possible scenario
Supply Risk Returns
27% Chance
The selloff proves short-lived if traders refocus on supply risk from OPEC+ discipline, Red Sea shipping threats, and Iran's earlier Bab el-Mandeb rhetoric. With Brent still above $100, even modest disruption headlines can quickly restore a geopolitical premium.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.8%
- Consumer Services -0.8%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.1%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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