Possible scenario
Petro Expands Spending
20% Chance
President Gustavo Petro prioritizes social programs and public investment over a near-term fiscal correction. Markets increasingly link the deficit to earlier concerns about higher taxation, oil-sector policy, and reduced confidence in orthodox economic management.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy -0.5%
- Finance -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.6%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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