Possible scenario
Managed Deficit Slippage
30% Chance
The deficit widens as projected, but Colombia preserves market access through local debt issuance, central-bank credibility, and a gradual fiscal adjustment. Investors demand a higher risk premium but stop short of pricing a funding crisis.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- US dollar Up
- Oil prices Up
- Copper Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.5%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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