Possible scenario
Fiscal Correction Passes
35% Chance
The Petro administration responds to the projected 2027 deficit with a credible fiscal package combining spending restraint, tax-base broadening, and protection of the fiscal rule. Congress and the Finance Ministry accept that market access depends on preserving debt sustainability.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Down
- Market volatility Down
- US dollar Down
Secondary impacts
- Finance +0.4%
- Energy +0.3%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.4%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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