Possible scenario
Administration Presses Forward
30% Chance
The Trump administration may decide that backing down after Obama’s criticism would look politically weak and proceed with a formal civil action. This would deepen the constitutional confrontation over targeting a sitting member of Congress, but near-term market effects would likely remain limited unless removal steps become imminent.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Finance -0.1%
- Technology -0.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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