Possible scenario
Limited War Returns
20% Chance
A miscalculation, deadly rocket strike, or Israeli assassination attempt could push both sides back into direct fighting. Neither Israel nor Hezbollah appears to want a full regional war, but domestic pressure and the symbolism of Nasrallah's anniversary raise escalation risk.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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