Possible scenario
Cease-Fire Frays Slowly
45% Chance
The most likely path is that Hezbollah keeps Nasrallah's legacy central to its messaging but avoids actions that would invite a major Israeli operation. Israel continues limited strikes and surveillance while U.S., French, Lebanese and UNIFIL channels try to keep the cease-fire framework alive.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.1%
- Consumer Services -0.1%
Tickers
- +0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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