Possible scenario
Russian Retaliation Escalates
18% Chance
Moscow responds with larger missile and drone attacks against Ukrainian power, rail, or gas infrastructure. The immediate market effect is a modest geopolitical risk premium rather than a crisis move, because retaliation has been a recurring feature of the war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.3%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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