Possible scenario
Militant Escalation
25% Chance
Jihadist groups such as Islamic State Sahel Province or JNIM test the Algerian deployment with attacks on convoys or forward positions. This would turn a limited mission into a more dangerous cross-border campaign, though still short of a region-wide war.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +0.7%
- Industrials
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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