Campaign Persists Incrementally

The most likely outcome is that the Contagious Interview and WaterPlum-style operations continue as a durable, low-cost revenue channel for North Korea. The disclosed $10.71 million haul is meaningful for sanctions evasion but too small to create broad financial-market stress.

Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.