Possible scenario
Prolonged Supply Disruption
30% Chance
Damage assessment shows the latest missile strike impaired critical Abqaiq processing capacity, forcing Saudi Arabia to defer cargoes and draw down storage. Repeated Houthi strikes on Abqaiq, Yanbu, and other Aramco assets make buyers question the reliability of Saudi short-cycle restoration.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.0%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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