Possible scenario
Limited Repair Outage
35% Chance
Saudi Aramco contains the physical damage at Abqaiq and restores part of the processing site within days. This is plausible because the company has redundancy, emergency repair experience from the 2019 Abqaiq attack, and strong incentives to reassure oil buyers.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.7%
- Consumer Services -0.9%
- Consumer Cyclicals
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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