Possible scenario
Weather Reversal
25% Chance
A less likely but plausible outcome is that harvest weather turns unfavorable and undermines USDA's yield upgrade. Corn futures recover part of the 4.8% drop as traders rebuild a modest weather-risk premium.
Secondary impacts
- Consumer Non-Cyclicals -0.8%
- Non-Energy Materials +0.8%
- Industrials +0.4%
- Energy -0.2%
Tickers
- TSN-2.5%
- GPRE-1.7%
- +1.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.