Possible scenario
Harassment Persists
30% Chance
Iran-linked maritime harassment continues below the threshold of a direct U.S.-Iran clash. Tanker owners reroute selectively, insurers raise war-risk premiums, and oil prices retain a moderate geopolitical premium.
Initial impacts
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +2.1%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-0.9%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.