Possible scenario
Escorts Contain Attacks
35% Chance
The U.S. Fifth Fleet, Royal Navy and regional partners expand escorted transits through the Strait of Hormuz after UKMTO's finding shows attacks were undercounted. Iran and IRGC-linked units avoid direct confrontation with coalition warships, keeping oil flows moving despite higher insurance and security costs.
Initial impacts
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Market volatility Up
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Oil prices Up
Secondary impacts
- Industrials +0.8%
- Consumer Services -0.4%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500+0.0%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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