Possible scenario
Direct Military Escalation
20% Chance
A strike causes serious damage or casualties, triggering U.S. or allied retaliation against IRGC maritime assets. This becomes a material geopolitical escalation for energy markets, though still short of a declared war or sustained closure of Hormuz.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +4.5%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.7%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
Keeping an eye on this scenario?
Tilt can alert you when its probability or impact shifts, or send you a recommendation when it crosses a threshold.