Possible scenario
Regional Spillover
18% Chance
The Al Aqsa raid becomes a regional flashpoint, drawing in Hezbollah, Jordan, Egypt, Turkey, or Iran-aligned militias. This is less likely than localized unrest but plausible because Jerusalem holy-site incidents have historically triggered cross-border mobilization and diplomatic ruptures.
Initial impacts
- Riskier companies' borrowing costs Up
- Market volatility Up
- 10-year Treasury yield Down
- Oil prices Up
- US dollar Up
Secondary impacts
- Energy +1.6%
Portfolio impact
S&P 500-1.2%
Each figure is the modeled move of the S&P 500 if the outcome occurs. For information only. Not investment advice.
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